In Regards to Risk

Liz Ann Sonders is worried with my generation
Within it, there’s a wave building with 
‘A mentality of get in, get out
Gambling on two moments in time.’
When we all speculate that becomes a crisis
– the games function changes – 
Why is Jane Street then advertised as my pinnacle?

At times of life changing risk 
I may acknowledge myself overexposed when I notice my hands
I’ll wash them, they feel clean,
And within a few loops, every texture is once again gross. 

I haven’t felt that feeling since the last time 
I was scalping weekly options
And prior, minute trading an asset like fartcoin. 
Agress enough volume in a day and I’ll feel the local market maker calling out my inventory mismanagement. 

I don’t like to be in a trade where I am size 
And also my best trades seem to come when I showed up early. 
A last traded price shouldn’t be confused with ability to absorb vol,
and a single vol spike won’t fool what’s worth a damn. 
TWAP. Consistency. 

Have you blacked out in your day? 
Perhaps not a casino, clicking a bet size, 
Though maybe scrolling a timeline, on an intake of discourse –
Do you move on at the moment you notice this?

Some mornings I sit down to work, queue a podcast, and when I rise for a break – maybe it’s 3pm. Then, 630pm. 
Is this a perk of living alone? For who is this a perk? 
I intend to sleep b4 10. 

If in a year from now I felt secure with my situation, what changed? 
I recognize the time I have +
My optionality here in my situation today


While here and adjacent perhaps to this topic, 
I would like to compare ‘funded account’ evaluations as more predatory 1920s bucket shops. A few friends are involved, and as such I consider myself a fly in the room.

Up front, you pay a fee to demonstrate your competence. 
Pass the test and they provide you with an opportunity to trade much larger amount of capital – at least until you fail.  
They’ll even give you ~90% of the profits. 

The game appears simple > reach the target + protecc the bag. 
For example starting criteria you have > 
a total allowable draw down amount from starting value (~3%), 
a daily draw amount (~3%), 
and a target ~3x as high from the start (~9%). 
Easy? 

I saw some large stats and ~5% of evaluations are passed. 
After you pass, additional profit can then be withdrawn 
Post pass, it’s possible the prop may not place your exact trade, nor hedge the other side. 

The ~prop firm~ has the right to not honor the payout for any reason. 
> you changed your strategy since passing the eval. 
> you don’t trade often enough. 
> we heard you took another bucket shop back east, we don’t know what you’re up to, and we won’t now honor your trades here.


Acknowledge the game you wish to play.

C’est la vie

There’s less tolerance I feel as I age
For focusing on negativity
When others do it, when I do it –
My least favorite moments in my day.

How much time am I willing to sacrifice therein?
How do I react to situations in which I can’t change the board?
Acceptance, scheme a few plans, commit to one, move forward.

How do I react to situations when I can change the board?
Let’s bet the farm on leaps during a wave 4 consolidation.
Stubbornness does prevail. Trust. Call that blind faith.

This morning my coffee smells like berry, peanut butter –
last week the mortadella panino with burrata, olio was brilliant.
There’s about 8 minutes twice a day where I want to pause;
peak golden hour at the days fringe.
Some seasons that stun is rare, and a season implies a cycle.
Trust.

Andrew said they remember me as someone quick to cut a mfer out of my life. That’s solutions oriented, right?

yap

There is a cafe in the second floor.
Leading in, there is a sheet music stand with comments.
Inside, there are no windows out. 
Two primary colors, white and black

The bar is on the left, four seats. 
Straight ahead are three cubicles which may sit four total. These themselves are also black. When you sit down on your stool without a back, in effect it is your own dark room. The only way forward is a square, about 1.5x the size of a diner mug, cut out from this wall. Just on the other side of this cutout, there is a black sliding curtain – it immediately registers as reasonable that the barista may control and deliver service here.

The menu is hand written on a 4×6 note stock, there is one copy in this room and I assume every other room. The menu is readable – relying overly on a tiny pendant light with a deep narrow shade. This beam is a concentrated cone, leaning on the wall itself.

Along the rooms perimeter, there are also dim lights not covered. These add enough context to see larger boundaries. 4000 kelvin, warm, yet this is my white point and balance. LEDs, no more than 3 inches in total size. 18 of them. 

Floating from this space to one of the bar seats; we have 2 additional lights above the counter. Warmer, 25%? 3000 kelvin range. Their shades are black, a metal alloy of sorts, and different shapes. The size of shade prevents any direct line of eye contact with the barista, who is facing me when at the brewing station. 

He heats water with 3 kettles. They are unique sizes. 2 of which are goosenecks.

Sometimes there’s a manual read thermometer put into a brass one. 
None of the water appears that hot, 
I never hear a boil, nor can visually observe a vapor. 

There’s a v60 including a stand, he uses it only to rest a cloth filter and wand after loading beans. 

The cloth filter, he cleans after each use. 
Washed with water, dried by squeezing the water with his hand. 
There are only two cloth filters identified. 

The Ethiopian on the list?

My first thought – similar to pilot gas station drip.
Leaning into acid, yet within bounds. 
Medium to dark roast. 

I look up at the coffee station, 
There are 8 jars of beans,
Maybe 5lbs in total,
All look the same darkness. 

The grinder?

It looks like a Zerno Z1, from 1990.
He doesn’t clear the grinder between beans, and on top there is a hopper large enough for a pound.
There is no grind size adjustment between Ethipoia and China.

The grinder is loaded only with the next order, at the time necessary. 

Eventually, the bloom. 
I glance at my watch, it’s about 60 seconds. 
In that time, he washes one (1) dish. 

The brew is into a hammered saucepan with a handle
With one hand, the second brass kettle
The other hand, a Hario Nel
And underneath, well, he collects his syrup.

This Nel, I observe as really letting the beans expand as they wish.

He appears to perform and adjust by his own senses, intuition.
The pour from the kettle reaches an occasional beaded drip into the center of the coffee bed. 

He himself –
A mullet about the length of merzbow. 
A black button down layered underneath a baggy brown cardigan.
In all, his own actions, words never exceed more than a few decibles.
ASMR

The serving ware –
Various pottery, if a genre I’d claim that of a squished aluminum can you’d hold.
And also some opposite of more delicate porcelain. 

There seems to be no rhyme or reason for which vessel the brew comes in. 100cc came in the larger pottery, while 120cc a white tea cup that belongs in a British movie. 

I look to the left –
There’s a cabinet in the corner where the larger collection is on display. Only wine glasses may perhaps be pairs.

The China tastes the same as Ethiopia. 

K Shape

Left Austin today; a week with C + C. 
Riding bicycles in San Marcos is more enjoyable than I ever knew + 
Homeslice still makes a great slice. 
Laughed a lot reminiscing with the homies about moments that happened a decade ago. 

Finished skin in the game by taleb. 
Learned a new word – ergodic
Probably won’t apply it correctly after a month, 
Primary pin is to consider tail risk +
Lean out when tail risk can result in ruin. 

Reminiscence of a stock operator makes the argument that tips are harmful. That reasoning I believe is sound. 
My own C- game I can live with. It’s gotten me here. 
Albeit I’d be ate up if I lost others livelihood. 

One circle of friends is talking quite a bit about latest AI developments. 
Claudebot, moltbot, clawbot is hot right now. 
One of them put together a scanner to catch knifes. 
Talks to it in a telegram channel.
Claiming the test port is up 180% in the last week – mfers will do anything to justify avoiding therapy. 

I was at Rosa’s Cafe with this tamale plate when this sci-fi doom article from Citrini was shared. I believe the article raised my heart rate, to a lesser extent the food. Personally I’ve been on the sidelines with the cutting edge experimentation – I don’t know fuck. Though I think timeline is slower than suggested. 
2+ years? 30%
10+ years? 80%

I’ve seen how slow my company (well funded, all gas, bottom is routinely culled) adopts and builds anything. And for an anchor point, the company is actively recognized for how well were using AI. 

All these words later, I am aware of how ill my track record is with projecting larger time frames. 

On pattern recognition, I believe markets tops involve rotations
> A tier leading the rally stop making new highs
> B tier push for a while
> C tier shitcoin slop and higher volatility takes the final last breathes before the nose dive down. 

Can (A) be observed by NVDA failing to make new highs?
(B) Palantir is still trading at a 100x fwd looking p/e ratio. They need a ~50% pump to reach new ath.
(C) The shitcoin slop I believe is close to breaking out.

Predators are begging for 401ks to get access to private credit. 
Less volatility or simply less often releasing their 409a. 
These requesters searching for a new bag holder. 
tl;dr exhaustion soon,,, wen? 
how would you maximize this bet?

Stagflation I believe is inevitable. 
Higher taxes in America I think are necessary across the board.
Are we simply lagging, repeating Brazil’s rate decisions?
Will the Roth IRA keep it’s status of tax free when I reach retirement age? 
What percentage of Americans need to act for change at large to occur? When does that population size reach motivation (unsatisfied, no longer comfy). 

Priorities this season –
Supporting my friends 
My own cardio health 
Laughing abt life

Love Always,
Dumb

xoxo

In July, I was on an Amtrak back home and
Journaling end of year dream targets.
There I listed half of my current nw eoy.
This is following the last 48, where
I threw 25% on a put that didn’t pay out –
Q4 PNL reset.
Early this week, I emailed a mfer ‘there’s no crying in the casino.’

Recent? Been feeling quite well.
‘This has been my favorite year of life’ –
Said at a few different occasions.
Like on Halloween, before a tarot card was pulled
And she told me smth abt confidence,
Or at friendsgiving, In the same breath describing that the day before I scored
A 74 on a test that’d update my career trajectory.
Passing was 75.
I’ll read the book again, maybe I’ll write notes this time.
Gemini 3 Pro may help w/ this.

Looking forward,
Well, I’m gonna see Rejoy in a few hours.
Spend a couple weeks with him in Arizona.
This winter, courtesy of my gf, I will learn how to ski,
And I’ll fly to the East Coast for holidays with her family.
In January there’s a company retreat in the Caribbean –
My coworkers in their swim suits.

Mid summer, I noticed my boy Jon saying often
‘You can just do things.’

Shoot the shots,
Dumb

On Living w/ a Cat

I believe this cat contributed to a larger structure of my routine happiness; a stability which ultimately enabled me to thrive here today. Below are my takeaways from the experience –

  • dairy is a reason to be alive
  • if I don’t think I’ll enjoy something, communicate that early
  • you don’t have to participate just bc everyone else is
  • for pleasure, defining time limits is usually unnecessary
  • passions are what your known for by others
  • opinions are what others may love you for
  • my body will fluctuate over the years
  • i’m going to have different seasons
  • odds of a scenario happening once increase with each iteration of the game
  • take some risk if it’ll fulfill yr life
  • just bc I’m shit at something today doesn’t mean I can’t improve
  • tunnel visioning may be both a strength and lead to your fall

Ethel these last months caught so many creatures, birds included. She would trot them inside so proudly. At 15, she played in her final hunt. It’s reasonable that in life I will have my own pain, such as when a loved one experiences suffering. At an end date, I choose to believe the suffering for them ends. While living, I may as well attempt to fulfill my suggestively attainable dreams. I set those targets after all.

I do think she would agree that her life was satisfactory.
I do think she felt the love I had for her.

Authentic

There’s a memory I have of my Grandpa at work. He asked me to take a drill out to his work truck, it had just been used to unclog a drain. While walking it out, the snake attached spun and splattered drain debris over his clients bedroom. In that moment, I realized that wasn’t the expectation, and that I would be letting others down (my grandpa, his client who’d have lil debris spots across their home). It might be the first moment I felt of shame.

Nowadays I do things within a company, and we laid a lot of folks off in February. A lot of individuals, who, I’d say have become my closest friends – on my wall I have more photos of my time with them than I do with blood family – our GM’s exchanged while still in bed spanning multiple years. Anyway, in that post-layoff all hands meeting, the top dog director called me out by name, while his #2 also dm’d me. Their comment simply: I was smiling too much.

Shortly after, the company cancelled the teams retreat. To transition this series of announcements – review season now commenced. My coworkers remaining shared their results across the relevant group chat(s). Commonly shared, albeit I will specifically quote my fav from my boi Mike who simply reported: ‘above expectations, 0% raise, jfc.’

Look, I didn’t seek a degree for this career, nor did I expect to fill my time with any company so long. On my part, being here today is both my developmental mistake and a blessing.

To clarify, I was given
1) a large bonus,
2) a 10% raise, and
3) a promotion.

An anomaly – these mfers said ‘he’s good, let’s rly keep him.’

Talking with my boi Riley, I put forward an ask for what they would do if work stressed them out. They said ‘buddy – make a plan and get out.’ And as I started this plan, I felt first reasonable to identify this stress. Really, I’m just doing something new. I’m being asked to perform in a new way, and that’s a growth opportunity.

With my available information, extrapolating multiple months – I think it’s reasonable there’s failures. At this speed, it could be a slow a train wreck, and maybe even I can decide to hop off at any point. Truly in any area of my life, I think it’s reasonable to both double down and/or embrace a change of pace. Wherever I’m throwing resources – I desire to feel wanted and I don’t want to let you down.

What is it that I have to learn before passing this level? To pull a quote from my girl Bonnie: ‘at some point you learn to love yourself.’ In that moment I didn’t ask her for elaboration, nor for her guide. I do think I’m on this path, albeit send me recs if you got ’em. Big desire for confirmation.

Love always,
Dumb

up hill

On the ferry ride –
that is when I feel alone;
a peak off yonder


When you asked to see photos of my days in ___
I said ‘sure, u can, they’ll all include my ex’
then we both agreed you wouldn’t want to see that

Here I was sitting across from you,
Scrolling to find anything without her
I wish you had said yes, for, she is v cool
And in those photos, I thought of her perhaps just as I think of you now –
My favorite energy thus far

Today I can say a handful of my habits –
My mannerisms, and my interests
were developed during this era with her

Like becoming an adventurous eater –
I think that compounded with a desire to grow
Within a new city,
My first weekend, a farmers mkt with friends,
Before eoy, our date nights
years l888, organic

And I wish I asked
If you would envision a time
When most nights we’d share a bed;
Are you happy? What else do you see?

When you said you didn’t wish to bike
To ____ coffee, or to ____,
Because there was hills

Reflecting, now I think,
Would I never climb another hill all that I live?
That feels so silly

Why do I enjoy climbing?
Because, that’s how I got here to your cool hot fun girl energy.
Tell me,
Please,
A more satisfactory way of living?

Looking through the photos now,
I smile for opportunities; the journey.

Love always,
Dumb

Home

There’s no more dog shit in the yard
The grass is long, wet, fluffy, about an inch of give dependent on the variety
It’s a younger sensation, a grounding exercise bare, enjoyable even in slides
Geese bark, an airplane taking off, somewhere down below – cars
The deer appear more openly each day now, today one with antlers and a partner, the fog behind.

The last four, I was around a dog named Zeke.
We shared property, my yard was his yard first;
My home, his day office.
First he ran, briefly jogged, ultimately walked.

Cesar left yesterday.
One of my oldest friends,
Coming to see me now (my home!!).
The time between where I was then vs where I am now,
Would I have guessed?
We ate fish, drove around, played the hits,
His doctor suggested asthma, he didn’t want to treat it
Yesterday
He jogged up the trail at the end,
The steepest, long hill of the hike
Past me, as I took a photo,
and this mfer kept pushing fwd,
To the v top.
C’s been an inspiration
+ encouraged me for years.

Some of the last four years,
Zeke and I were the only two home.
Dude chilled hard, good naps, good wanders,
Always vibing, loved to eat, an open door,
+ sassy wen u were being a shit.

I do think a lot about the amt of days
On average I have left
And what I want that time to look like ??
Unnecessary devotion.

From Paris

Leonor’s room was pitch black
Not an inch in front of me
Could I realistically see
And when she blew out the candle
I tried, I really squinted in attempt

She held me, like she’d never hold me again
Her head resting into my head
Her left leg over my waist
My hands also embracing her
Pulling her in as not to let go
At least three moments, I remember,
She spoke to me in French
Her voice, so round
The words I could not repeat to clarify, maybe an ‘au’ and ‘bo’
These sounds were soft, embracing
My own translation, simply to adjust my body position, a nudge – encouragement.
‘whatever you need dear, darling, Leonor
And with each move of mine, she then held me once again, closer
In the morning, as her parents called to ensure she was awake (7am, daily),
her arms were still around me –
Under my neck and above my hip, meeting together around my chest
As I hear over the speaker ‘au trois’
I roll around to see her smile.
Her left hand returns to my side,
And her head falls back to the pillow.

For breakfast, we ate a seeded rye bread
With cherry preserves from her grandparents orchard
Accompanied with a full french press –
She tells me to let her know when to stop pouring – the volume of the cup I thought as reasonable
Then hers, halfway filled she dilutes with tap water

Afterwards she prepares for her day ahead –
at an office in the 15th before 9am
Her roommate talks to me as I do their dishes
Leonor and I catch the same train from her house
And as my stop comes forward, she grabs my hand
Her eyes looking into mine, a warm smile and sparkle
She’s wearing a black dad hat with text that reads
‘leaseplan’. ‘Nothing lasts forever’ I interpret to myself.

A reminder.