Left Austin today; a week with C + C.
Riding bicycles in San Marcos is more enjoyable than I ever knew +
Homeslice still makes a great slice.
Laughed a lot reminiscing with the homies about moments that happened a decade ago.
Finished skin in the game by taleb.
Learned a new word – ergodic
Probably won’t apply it correctly after a month,
Primary pin is to consider tail risk +
Lean out when tail risk can result in ruin.
Reminiscence of a stock operator makes the argument that tips are harmful. That reasoning I believe is sound.
My own C- game I can live with. It’s gotten me here.
Albeit I’d be ate up if I lost others livelihood.
One circle of friends is talking quite a bit about latest AI developments. Claudebot, moltbot, clawbot is hot right now.
One of them put together a scanner to catch knifes.
Talks to it in a telegram channel.
Claiming the test port is up 180% in the last week – mfers will do anything to justify avoiding therapy.
I was at Rosa’s Cafe with this tamale plate when this sci-fi doom article from Citrini was shared. I believe the article raised my heart rate, to a lesser extent the food. Personally I’ve been on the sidelines with the cutting edge experimentation – I don’t know fuck. Though I think timeline is slower than suggested.
2+ years? 30%
10+ years? 80%
I’ve seen how slow my company (well funded, all gas, bottom is routinely culled) adopts and builds anything. And for an anchor point, the company is actively recognized for how well were using AI.
All these words later, I am aware of how ill my track record is with projecting larger time frames.
On pattern recognition, I believe markets tops involve rotations
> A tier leading the rally stop making new highs
> B tier push for a while
> C tier shitcoin slop and higher volatility takes the final last breathes before the nose dive down.
Can (A) be observed by NVDA failing to make new highs?
(B) Palantir is still trading at a 100x fwd looking p/e ratio. They need a ~50% pump to reach new ath.
(C) The shitcoin slop I believe is close to breaking out.
Predators are begging for 401ks to get access to private credit.
Less volatility or simply less often releasing their 409a.
These requesters searching for a new bag holder.
tl;dr exhaustion soon,,, wen?
how would you maximize this bet?
Stagflation I believe is inevitable.
Higher taxes in America I think are necessary across the board.
Are we simply lagging, repeating Brazil’s rate decisions?
Will the Roth IRA keep it’s status of tax free when I reach retirement age?
What percentage of Americans need to act for change at large to occur? When does that population size reach motivation (unsatisfied, no longer comfy).
Priorities this season –
Supporting my friends
My own cardio health
Laughing abt life
Love Always,
Dumb